Some analysis of the "second-choice" issue confronting Iowa Democrats at their caucus in January.

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    Mitt Romney may be in trouble in Iowa but the word hasn't gotten to NH yet. Rasmussen has Romney with a 19-point lead over John McCain and Rudy Giuliani, 34%-15%, with Mike Huckabee right behind.
    The question is whether the lead will hold -- and it is a huge one -- if Romney loses Iowa five days before NH. And, even if he were to win NH after losing Iowa, would the press then write off his victory in the Granite State as a kind of favorite son showing?

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    Paul Krugman goes after Barack Obama: The Tote Board's take.

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    The press reaction to last night's debate generally conforms to what we said last night with one exception: While they give it to Huckabee, many found Giuliani to have an off night.
    Still, what counts is what went over in Iowa and David Yepsen in the Des Moines Register thought Huckabee did well. The Mittster is in trouble which, over time, is good news for both Giuliani and McCain, who need Romney to fade in Iowa so they can potentially move up in New Hampshire.

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    A good night for Giuliani and Huckabee, but not for Romney, who seemed tired and hesitant virtually every time he was challenged. One debate does not a campaign make but if tonight is indicative, the race is going to come down to Rudy and Mike.  Maybe it was just this one observer's impresson -- and it was just one event -- but the rest of the field beyond those two seemed to be candidates for a cabinet office, not the presidency.

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    This week's column looks at why Hillary Clinton remains the strong favorite to do well in January and progress to the nomination.

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    The latest Rasmussen poll now has Mike Huckabee ahead of Mitt Romney in Iowa 28%-25%. It's a stunning turnaround and if it holds -- a big "if" -- Mitt's campaign will virtually end the night of the Iowa caucuses.

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    The Tote Board's preview of tonight's GOP debate.

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    Last week, Graniteprof, a terrific website, had an interesting item on the latest Globe poll in New Hampshire. What he highlighted from the poll is that among voters with a high school education or less, Obama trails Clinton in New Hampshire by an astounding 6-1 margin, and actually runs fourth in New Hampshire behind Bill Richardson and John Edwards among these voters.
    The good news for Obama is that the college-educated tend to cast a disproportionate number of ballots in Iowa and New Hampshire. The bad news is that, as the process goes on through the primaries and into November, this becomes less and less true.
    The other bad news is that the "wine and brie" candidate in the Democratic primaries -- whether the name is Dean, Bradley, Hart, Udall, or Kerrey -- seldom wins the nomination.

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    Oprah is hitting the campaign trail next week for Obama, which could be a huge asset. As we wrote in a previous Tote Board column,  it's not simply that Oprah is a huge pop culture celebrity. It's that her constituency is roughly the same as Hillary's -- lower-to-middle class women -- so she has the potential to help Obama with a key group.
    Having said that, will she energize "her vote" in Iowa -- a caucus state where it's much harder to participate? It's unlikely. New Hampshire and South Carolina, however, could be another story.

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    A quick radio analysis of the state of the race.

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    Michigan's on-again, off-again GOP primary (thanks to court decisions) is back on for January 15th, placing it third in the process -- a week after New Hampshire and before South Carolina.
    The beneficiary obviously depends on who comes out of the two contests before (Iowa and New Hampshire) but it's obviously not a bad state for either Mitt Romney (family connections) or Rudy Giuliani (geography). The big loser is Fred Thompson who is now likely to lose in a third state before getting to South Carolina where he pretty much has to win to survive.
    There will also be a Democratic contest that day but since the DNC has found it to run afoul of party rules and most of the candidates have asked to have their names removed from the ballot there, it will not be covered by the press and will make no difference.
   

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    The latest Iowa poll, this one courtesy of the Washington Post/ABC:

    Romney 28%
    Huckabee 24%
    Thompson 15%
    Giuliani    13%

    The real news, other than the closeness of the race in this poll, is the poor showing by Giuliani. Should he finish fourth in Iowa, it's a boost to McCain five days later in New Hampshire.

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    This week's Tote Board column wonders why none of the other candidates has spoken out forcefully to defend Mitt Romney against religious prejudice.

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    A new ABC/Washington Post poll has Obama ahead for the first time in Iowa since a Newsweek poll showed him with a similar lead in September.
    The results for the top three:

     Obama 30%
     Clinton 26%
``  Edwards 22%

    The main import of the poll -- besides giving a psychological boost to the Obama campaign -- is to deliver a blow to Edwards. If it looks like he can't compete with the top two, will he lose further support?
    Rasmussen is in the field polling Iowa right now. That poll is sure to receive a lot of attention in the next few days to see if this is some kind of aberration or represents a trend. And, just to put a little spin on it, the last ABC/Washington Post Iowa poll at the end of July had Obama ahead by 1%, at a time when other pollsters had Clinton way in front of Obama in the Hawkeye state. So, we'll see.

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