December 01, 2008
L - R: Clay Buchholz, Justin Masterson, Michael Bowden
This is not news by now: the Red Sox are likely to need a catcher for
the 2009 season and beyond. There are options: Varitek could return,
they could import a veteran like Bengie Molina or Pudge Rodriguez, Josh
Bard could make his triumphant return, they could trade for a youngster
from another team who's available, or simply call up George Kottaras
from Pawtucket. We'll know more after the deadline for teams to offer
arbitration to free agents on Monday, but those are the possibilities.
All of these choices carry various pros and cons, of course, which we
could analyze at length if we so chose. But we're just focusing on
trade possibilities for the sake of this discussion. And since we've
already spent some time talking about the relative merits of the
catching surplus of a certain team once owned by a certain slow-witted
President, which includes a certain offensive-minded youngster with a
long, Italian name, we're going to look at this more form the Red Sox'
perspective. Specifically, I'd like to look at the cost.
Almost
any young, talented catcher the Red Sox would want to trade for is not
going to come cheap. If most fans are somewhat aware of what the Red
Sox catching situation is, then it's probably safe to say that most
General Managers around MLB are also somewhat aware. A catcher is going
to cost the team one of their top three young pitchers - Justin
Masterson, Clay Buchholz, or Michael Bowden. The market ultimately will
probably dictate which of the three youngsters the Red Sox will ultimately trade -- assuming they go that direction -- but it's probably still worth looking at which one they ought to trade. Probably. Let's look at the three individually.
Masterson:
He's an effective groundballer who's pitched well both in the rotation
and out of the bullpen. By the end of last year, he was looking like
second chair in the pen behind Papelbon. But others still envision him
as another Derek Lowe-style groundball machine who's best out of the
rotation. The Red Sox' two most significant moves so far this winter
have brought them two right-handed relievers (Ramon Ramirez and Wes
Littleton), which would suggest they subscribe to the latter view. Some scouts, though, insist he's better used in relief, since he has a high-stress delivery and has a pretty pronounced split - lefties hit him pretty well last year (in limited action, of course). If a potential trade partner shares the view that he's a starter, then a young catcher might be a solid match even-up, but if they believe him to be a reliever, they might ask for a pot sweetener from Boston. Something tells me he'd fit in well in Texas.
Bowden: Bowden's ceiling isn't as high as Buchholz's or even Masterson's; he projects more as a #3 starter. Names like Bronson Arroyo and Jeff Suppan come up as points of comparison when discussing Bowden. Those guys have had nice careers, of course, so that's not a knock. It's more about managing expectations. The reason Bowden is so valuable is because he's closer to reaching that ceiling than the average 22-year-old, and any pitcher who can perform that well for you at that age for that price is extremely valuable. That said, if the Red Sox dealt him they might not miss him as much as they might miss other pitchers with more raw ability, like Clay Buchholz. Speaking of...
Buchholz: Buchholz represents an interesting case at this point in his career. You'd hate to trade him now when his value is at an absolute low, particularly when he has flashed such brilliance in the past. For the believers - and I will disclose that I count myself among them - there were some positive signs in Buch's dreadful '08 campaign. His K/9 stayed high. He had some bad luck on balls in play. And he experienced a possibly flukish spike in home runs allowed. If he can cut down on walks and do a slightly better job of keeping the ball in the park, he can be back on track for greatness once again.
But that's no guarantee. There have been questions and rumors surrounding Buchholz regarding his work ethic, character, and "extracurricular activities" since the Red Sox drafted him. All I can really say is that it's on him at this point. I'd favor giving him the chance to prove it at this point and hope he justifies that faith, but obviously there are people out there who would know more about it than I would, and they're the ones deciding this stuff.
* * *
The Red Sox today announced the signing of Junichi Tazawa to a Major-League deal, even though he'll probably need to start at least at Double-A Portland. I don't know too much about Tazawa, but a lot of scouts seem to be non-believers and feel he won't be worth the contract the Sox are signing him to. When you combine that skepticism with the possibility of this setting a precedent that destroys MLB's relationship with Japanese baseball, then it's hard not for me to wonder if this was such a great idea. We'll see, I guess.
November 18, 2008
Kapow!
First Sox since the Hit Dog in '95. And Mo's probably twice his size. Literally.
Ain't that something?
16 first-place votes. Not too shabby at all at all.
From SoSH: "Never in my lifetime did I think a munchkin my size would win an MVP award in baseball. Nice work there shrimp."
He offers hope to and inspires pride in short men everywhere. Sniff.
And big props also to Weird Beard for making the top three!
Quite a team we've got here. It can only get better, right?
November 13, 2008
Oh, don't pretend you don't know what book it is
Tony Maz keeps saying the Red Sox' priority at the winter meetings will be to sign Mark Teixeira, which, as we discussed earlier, they should do if they can. At the same time, though, it's hard to understand why that situation would be their first priority, since they've known for a long time now that they would be facing a tough decision on their catching situation.
Let's lay out the realities here for the Red Sox:
• Jason Varitek has been their primary catcher since 1999, when he took over for Scott Hatteberg. In that time, he's made three All-Star games (I know, we'll get to it), won a Gold Glove, and with a couple of injury-plagued exceptions, generally been an above-average offensive catcher as well.
• Other than Carlton Fisk and Jorge Posada (I know, we'll get to it), most catchers are pretty close to cooked by their age-35 season. Generally. You can take a look for yourself: pick a catcher whose name you can remember and check it out on baseball-reference.com. Joe Torre. Mike Piazza. Johnny Bench. Terry Steinbach. Sandy Alomar, Jr. Mike Scioscia. Some of these guys may hang on and play for years afterwards, but their days of productivity generally end around their mid-30s. In some cases, even before.
• Jason Varitek will turn 37 in April of next year.
• Last year, Varitek had by far his worst offensive season: .220/.313/.359. He made the All-Star team, but his selection was widely mocked and was generally pointed at as one of the many reasons the All-Star Game was gradually becoming more and more of a farce. It was also a contract year, and Jason Varitek is represented by the slimy-yet-effective Scott Boras.
• Jorge Posada at age 35 had a fantastic season in a contract year. This led to his signing a four-year deal with the Yankees ... and promptly injuring his shoulder. People have already been speculating that he may be close to done as a catcher.
• Scott Boras is saying that Varitek will be seeking a Posada-style deal: four years, $52 million dollars.
• The Red Sox should be openly laughing in his face and mocking him, but they aren't. Which isn't to say they're listening, but ...
... It's complicated. The Red Sox are normally known for being exhaustively prepared, for using their resources to their advantage, for not sacrificing the long term for the sake of the short term, and for a focus on depth. Yet on the surface, their approach to the catching situation - and it's not just Varitek - seems to have been "let's wait until Varitek is a free agent and then hope everything magically works itself out somehow!"
I'm exaggerating, of course. If it was as simple as saying "we need a catcher, let's get one!" they'd have done so. Other GMs, believe it or not, are not totally stupid, and they would likely adjust their asking price to reflect the fact that the Red Sox would be trying to negotiate from a position of weakness. And they did acquire both Josh Bard and George Kottaras; one didn't work out and the other isn't quite what one would hope for.
And at the same time, the idea that Varitek brings nothing to the table is not wholly without merit - it's just that there's no tangible info to back it up. Around the game, Varitek is revered for his ability to handle pitchers - to effectively call a game to match up a pitcher's strengths with an opposing team's weakness. We all have heard the stories about how he has these huge notebooks full of data on pitchers and hitters from around the league. Certainly his pitchers speak highly of him. People insist - there's no real way to measure his impact. And that's also the problem - if there's no way to measure it, how do we know it's real? Chad Finn wrote a blog post today in which he points out that Varitek never seems to get much blame for certain pitchers' failures as members of the Red Sox, which I'm not totally sure is fair given that at least four of the guys he mentioned had arms that were in various stages of disrepair when he got to work with them (Clement, Kim, Miller, Howry). But that doesn't mean the substance of his argument - namely, that the "Varitek-effect" on pitchers is overstated - is wrong. Approach it a different way: look at how the pitchers did after they left. Derek Lowe had some great years with the Dodgers. Pedro had an excellent year as a Met before his arm finally gave out. Jeff Suppan, J.C. Romero, Bronson Arroyo (briefly), Joel Pineiro, Cla Meredith, and probably a few others I'm forgetting all pitched quite well without access to Varitek's brain.
Yet, all that said, if he was willing to come back on a short-term deal for a relatively low dollar amount with a handshake agreement to serve as a part-time backstop and mentor to whatever young protege Theo can line up for him, I'm sure most would agree that that would represent the ideal situation. The four-year demand was made by Boras, but we don't really know what Varitek wants. Maybe he'll pull an A-Rod and kick his agent out of the negotiations? Or maybe not. We can hope, though.
What we do know, somewhat amusingly, is that the Rangers' young catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia would love to be a member of the Red Sox in the near future. The Sox are probably interested, even if the better choice may be his Texas teammate Taylor Teagarden. Texas will likely look for one of Buchholz, Masterson, or Bowden, which is a tough pill to swallow, but not an impossible one. We can look at those three pitchers another time.
Either way, memo to Salty: wait until you're actually traded before talking about how playing somewhere else is a dream come true.
November 13, 2008
Like a chainsaw bayonet, Mark Teixeira is a major offensive upgrade
The offseason is upon us - Oakland, Colorado, Washington, and Florida certainly have gotten started on things and Atlanta and San Diego may be next - and so now it is time for us to lay out our road map for what we feel the Red Sox should do to put together a competitive team in 2009.
Make no mistake about this: while the 2007 and 2008 teams were both great, the Sox cannot afford to rest on their laurels here unless they wish to designate '09 as a "retooling" year. The Rays will likely improve without even making any significant moves just by swapping Edwin Jackson out for David Price in their rotation. The Yankees sound like they're itching to spend some money. And the Jays can't really be counted out. So the Red Sox need to be active here.
Reports from the Globe and others are that they're going to look to make an offer to free agent slugger Mark Teixeira. The case for acquiring him in a vacuum makes itself. Teixeira is a great hitter in the prime of his career. He's put up better numbers since leaving the hitter's paradise in Texas and moving on to Atlanta and Los Angeles. Plus he plays great defense at first base.
But of course, these things can't be evaluated in a vacuum. The Red Sox have a first baseman, Kevin Youkilis. Youkilis can play third, but they have a third baseman also. But the presence of Lowell shouldn't preclude a Teixeira run. Allow me to present two baseball players. Two third basemen, in fact.
They've both played approximately the same number of games. Let's
compare:
Player A: .285/.357/.482
Player B: .273/.330/.453
Player
A looks pretty solid - a useful guy with the bat and, when combined
with very good defense at third base, he becomes very valuable to a
first-division club. Player B is not exactly what you might call bad
per se, just a lot closer to average. He's not going to kill your
team's chances or anything, but if you're paying him, say, $24 million
over the next two years, it's not a desirable situation.
Player A and Player B are ... wait for it ... both Red Sox third baseman Mike Lowell.
Player A is first-half Mike Lowell, the guy who makes All-Star teams
and gets picked in the middle round of fantasy drafts. But for whatever
reason, neither the Red Sox nor the Marlins have been able to figure
out how to keep his performance from deteriorating to a degree in the
second half. Perhaps he could use more rest in the first half, or
perhaps there's something else at play.
But wait! You haven't met Player C yet:
Player C: .350/.407/.483
Hey,
this guy's pretty good! This is Mike Lowell yet again: Mike Lowell's
second half in 2007. In Lowell's contract year, he posted those numbers
thanks to a crazy stroke of good fortune, to the tune of a .383 BABIP
(usually that figure normalizes to roughly .300) - a run of luck which
continued into the World Series. That's not really sustainable. Take
that run of good fortune out of Lowell B's numbers above, and his
second-half track record plunges towards Julio Lugo territory.
I
was not blogging about the Red Sox in 2007, but if I was, I would most
likely have advocated for the team to thank Lowell for the memories and
look to other options to fill the void at third or first base for the
reasons stated above: he seems like a great guy with debonairish good
looks, and for the first three and a half months of the season he's
absolutely someone you want on your team. The alternatives at the time
were not spectacular, and that likely was a big factor for the Red Sox
in their decision-making process. The deal at the time was defensible,
but not ideal: while they couldn't predict something like Lowell's hip
injury, Lowell was heading into his middle thirties and was a good bet
to decline over the life of his next contract; the Red Sox are a
statistically savvy team and were probably aware of the underlying
figures behind his great 2007. He suffered through an injury-plagued
2008, and when he was healthy he reverted to something closer to his
career norm. But if he cannot come back stronger from the thumb and hip
injuries as he enters his age 35 season, then there's a real concern.
My biggest concern is his defense - if his mobility is limited by the
hip injury and his defense slips as a result, he loses a lot of value.
I am not saying the Red Sox should prioritize trading Mike Lowell at all costs. I am simply saying that if they can get Teixeira, they should, and they shouldn't let the presence of Lowell stop them. As
far as trade partners go, Cleveland, the Dodgers, the White Sox,
possibly Milwaukee, and maybe even Philadelphia all come to mind. But
this raises another set of questions... which we'll address in the
future.
October 31, 2008
RED SOX EXERCISE 2009
CONTRACT OPTION ON RHP TIM WAKEFIELD
BOSTON, MA—The Boston Red Sox today exercised the
2009 contract option on righthanded pitcher Tim Wakefield.
The announcement was made by Executive Vice
President/General Manager Theo Epstein.
Wakefield
posted a 10-11 record and a 4.13 earned run average in 30 starts this season.
He ranked second on the staff and third in the American League with a .228
opponents batting average against. The righthander finished second on the club
in starts and innings (181.0) and fourth in strikeouts (117).
Wakefield
is second in club history with 1,797 career strikeouts, 367 starts and 504
appearances and third with 164 wins and 2,581.2 innings. He is the only Red Sox
pitcher ever with at least 500 games and 350 starts in his career and the 23rd
hurler in major league history to reach those milestones with the same team.
The 42-year-old competed in his 14th season with Boston in 2008, the longest continuous stint
as a pitcher in club history."
No surprise
there. Good to have him back, in whatever capacity it ends up being.
Fifteenth
season. Wow.
October 20, 2008
I’m not
sad.
There are
things I keep playing over in my mind, sure. The fact that Alex
Cora started at short. The fact that JD
Drew didn’t actually go around. The fact that Pedroia “just
got under it.”
But I’m not
sad.
It was a
damn great series. And they’re one hell of a baseball team. They played us
tough, and we gave it right back to them, and in the end they edged us out by
just that much.
Cheers.
And it’s a
good thing Theo’s not
losing sleep, because he’ll need to be well-rested for all the work he’s
got ahead of him this winter.
In the mean
time, we’ve got nothing whatsoever to hang our heads about. If we’d lost on
Thursday night, I’d definitely be feeling differently. But as it is, I’m proud
of what we managed to do this year. And I’m very curious to see what this squad
will look like when spring training gets
underway in 129 days.
October 17, 2008
October 17, 2008
This just in.
You know it's a big deal when 88-year-old men feel compelled to blog about it the next day:
"In a surprise move, Red Sox manager Terry Francona last night
accepted an offer from Senator John McCain to supervise every aspect of
his faltering campaign for the Presidency in the period remaining
before November 4th, Election Day. The move came less than an hour
after Francona’s club had scored eight runs in the last three innings
of Game Five of the American League Championship Series, doing away
with a seven-run lead by the Tampa Bay Rays, who had appeared to be on
the verge of a pennant and a berth in the 2008 World Series. Francona
will supplant the incumbent McCain campaign director, Rick Davis. 'I’m
a maverick, too,' Francona declared in a press conference."
"Well, no. In truth, Francona, who is not interested in the harsh
back-and-forth of campaign politics, is expected to replace Secretary
of the Treasury Henry Paulson; the appointment will be announced in a
Presidential press conference at the White House later today. Francona,
it has been noted, has a record of 8–1 in games in which his Red Sox
faced total annihilation."
I like the second idea much, much better than the first.
October 17, 2008
If nothing
else this October, we’ll have this.
Good Lord.
What is it
with these guys?
Is there
something hardwired in their DNA that makes it difficult to thrive in any
situation other than teeth-grinding adversity? Are they like a writer (say,
like me perhaps?) who’s able to produce only with a Damoclean deadline looming
over his head?
That was
something to see last night.
Something I
sorta still can’t believe I saw.
I’m still
pretty skeptical that we’ll be moving much further forward. But at the very least they
raged — and raged, and raged — against the dying of the light.
Solid
relief work. Quality at-bats. Taking pitches. Fouling them off. Finding the
gaps.
And, yeah,
booming, well-timed bombs.
This is how
it’s done. I’m glad to know they hadn’t forgotten.
So we’re
heading back down south. Going inside. To a place where Upton
and Longoria won’t have that friendly GreenMonster to golf balls over anymore.
One has to
think, their protestations notwithstanding, all these young dudes are getting
just a little bit tense. Let’s try to exploit that. Let’s try to pitch like we
need to pitch, and hit like we did for three mind-blowing innings last night.
May the
best team win.
And anyone
at Fenway who booed Ortiz last night shouldn’t be allowed to watch.
October 17, 2008
But a picture says a thousand words.
October 17, 2008
More tomorrow . . .
October 15, 2008
"We’ve got them just where we want them.”
October 14, 2008
October 13, 2008
Yes, it
appears this series may be destined
to be a long one.
One hopes
so, at least.
Despite the
Sports Guy’s incredulity that the run-up to the 2008 ALCS was “like getting ready to watch Floyd
Mayweather fight Jonathan Lipnicki for the welterweight title,” these are
two well-balanced, well-matched, and close-scoring baseball teams.
The first
game was a marvel of snare-tight efficiency.
The second
was a let-it-all-hang-out sorta affair.
(I much
preferred the former.)
So what shall
this afternoon’s contest bring? Maybe some combination of the two?
Time will
tell. It’s a privilege that I’ll be at Fenway to find out. I’ll be posting
crappy photos taken from the right-field grandstand later this evening.
(Assuming, that is, that the game doesn’t still last until 1:30 a.m.)
In the mean
time,
Do I hope
Jon Lester, on
this bright and clear afternoon, can do what he done did to the Angels?
I certainly do.
Do I pray
that David
Ortiz will remember that Tim McCarver is quite wrong, that a walk is nowhere near as good as a home run?
Fervently.
Do I wish
Josh Beckett was back
to his old self? More than you can
possibly imagine.
Do I hope
never to see Mike
Timlin pitch in a playoff game again? Sadly, yes.
Do I wish
Alex Cora wasn’t
in the line-up? Sort of.
But do I
believe we can win this thing? You
betcha.
October 07, 2008
Don’t have
much time for a long post today, but amidst the celebration, as we debate
our rotation and size up the competition (good to be reminded that Lester
is 3-0 with a 0.90 ERA against the Rays this season), I did want to extend some
condolences.
To Mike
Scioscia, for having his shrewd
small-ball tactical maneuver blow up in his face.
To John
Lackey, who, one must understand, is only lashing out in
anger.
To the
Rally Monkey, who not only was hung
in effigy, but, worse, was compared
to Sarah Palin.
To Curt
Schilling, who, to judge by the timing of this announcement,
apparently finds it difficult not to be the center of attention.
And, lest
we forget, to the partisans over at NYYFans.com,
who are now forced to watch two of their least favorite teams compete for the
pennant.
Says one pouting
pinstriper: “I came to the realization last night that picking a team to root
for in this series was like trying to pick someone to root for in an arm
wrestling match between Hitler and bin Laden.”
That can
only mean that this
is gonna be a good one.
