Abroad and at home, the future looks grim. If the United States is lucky, the political and economic pain might last just two or three years. It is not, however, unrealistic to expect three to five years of troubled times. Maybe more.
This sort of dark, disturbing forecast is difficult for optimistic Americans to digest. Only a fool — or a Republican — would deny that these are the most challenging times the nation has faced in 40 years: stalemate in Iraq and Afghanistan, meltdown on Wall Street, and recession on Main Street. And that’s putting it mildly.
It is hard to escape the foreboding atmosphere, the sense that something even scarier than the events of the past several weeks is about to gel — as if $8 trillion of stock-market losses over the past 12 months is not nightmare enough.
America’s bad dreams are nudging the presidential prospects of Democrat Barack Obama higher. It is not necessarily the case that voters swinging toward Obama favor him and his policies; rather, they fear Republican John McCain and his program, which — putting vice-presidential pick Sarah Palin aside — is four more years of President George W. Bush.
McCain has shown himself to be a spooky figure. Gone is the avuncular “maverick” once celebrated by the romantics of the national media. McCain appears determined to channel his inner Nixon, to commune with the spirit of George Wallace. Nods to history aside, McCain stands before the American electorate for what he is: a rigid and nasty old coot, a jaded election junkie, a man who believes he has a divine right to rule. Don’t tread on John. He’s a dangerous guy, a swaggering guy, a guy unafraid to pick an ignoramus for his vice-president.
During the most recent debate, McCain sublimated his crankiest side — almost. There were two telling backfires: a gratuitous swipe at moderator Tom Brokaw of NBC News for not being qualified to be secretary of the treasury and a peevish reference to Obama as “that one.” Senior moments? Those flashes of bizarre aggression aside, McCain was relatively smooth, at times sophisticated, and unrepentantly supportive of the policies — foreign and domestic — that have plopped the nation into the hot water in which it now wallows.
Regular Phoenix readers will not be surprised that we think Obama was smoother, more sophisticated, and on point in his criticisms of what’s wrong with the economy and McCain’s belligerent world-view.
Still, it is hard to escape the conclusion that the debate, like the entire presidential campaign, is being conducted inside a bubble chock full of “issues,” but hermetically sealed against the savage reality of the world as it is — and as it will be.
The future promises to be nasty and brutish.
Both McCain and Obama seem clueless about the state of the war in Afghanistan. The United States is asking its NATO allies for either more troops or more money. It is each NATO member’s choice.
Britain’s commander in Afghanistan says the war there cannot be won. He counsels a negotiated settlement with the Taliban, which is something the Kabul government is already trying. Meanwhile, the United States is running a secret war inside Pakistan, which is where, according to intelligence, the greatest threat of another terrorist attack originates. None of this is good news.
In Iraq, the real but fragile gains achieved by the surge are being used by the Iraqi government to leverage an agreement on how and when American troops will leave. It is clear that the Iraqis want Bush’s “coalition” gone. The terms are being set. McCain may oppose a timetable for withdrawal, but the Iraqis are pushing for one.
The sacrifice of lives and money for goals that were probably never achievable is, of course, profoundly disturbing. It should also provoke anger. The lack of connection between foreign-policy reality and campaign rhetoric is huge.
There was — and still is — a credibility gap about the ongoing financial crisis. This is not something that materialized out of thin air. The credit crisis, the squeeze afflicting banks and other financial institutions, has been in motion for well more than a year. The public has yet to realize the seriousness and far reach of this economic crisis.
With less than a month remaining before the national election, it is unrealistic to expect the terms of the debate to change much. But events are moving faster than political perceptions. It is hard to imagine, but the winner of November’s contest is going to assume leadership of a nation that is worse off than it is today. Things are going to get worse before they get better. And if McCain is elected, they could get unimaginably worse.
